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October 2007

Monthly Archive

Week 8 NFL Preview

From a NFL football perspective, factoring marque games can play a roll in making the winning NFL pick for NFL Week 8. Also from a NFL team financial standpoint, every NFL team jumps quickly at the chance to play in a marquee game. Come Sunday night, whether the audience is glued to the set or just Velcroed to the back of the sofa from already watching seven-plus hours of straight football, these games put the ‘prime’ in both -time and -target for sponsorship dollars.

There is also Monday Night , gathering an even larger audience since it doesn’t compete with Family Guy on Fox, and then let’s not forget the Turkey Day extravaganza or the late-season Saturday games. Either way, no matter what night of the week these games fall on the payoff to the franchises involved is always greater than the usual booty raked from a locally televised game.

Players love the attention from these games, too. More cameras means a better chance to be seen doing what they do best and when it’s the only show in town, they know that even their football buddies from other teams are checking them out.

With even more pressure to perform in these contests than the already high expectations placed on pro athletes every week, marquee games standout on a team’s locker room calendar for months in advance. It creates what would normally be grounds for a look-ahead situation and as a bettor, it certainly needs to be addressed when analyzing the game in search of a potential play . There is something different about these games, though, in comparison to other look-ahead spots such as a game vs. a division rival. It could be an ego thing, or maybe it has more to do with building momentum, but NFL teams this season playing one week before a marquee matchup are consistently hitting against the spread (ATS).

- on the teams that have a Sunday or Monday night game on-deck the following week turned out a nice profit in the first four weeks of the season, going 10-4-1 ATS.

- In Week 5, the four teams looking ahead to a marquee matchup in Week 6 were New Orleans, Seattle, the Giants and the Falcons, and although they slipped up a bit straight-up, they still managed a split against the spread (2-2 ATS).

- Three of the teams looking ahead to a marquee matchup in Week 7 had a bye in Week 6 but the one remaining squad, the Jacksonville Jaguars, made short work of their opponent, the visiting Houston Texans. Houston swept the Jags in 2006 and they kind of had it coming.

- In Week 8 there are technically six marquee teams because along with the Sunday Night game (Washington at New England) and Monday game (Green Bay at Denver), there is the Giants and Dolphins game which will be played at nighttime in London, England . Green Bay was off with a bye in Week 7 and the Pats and Dolphins played each other, washing those two teams out of this profile, but the three remaining teams went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. The only loser, Washington, was in a position to cover until the final minute and then Arizona recovered an onside kick and almost beat them straight-up but was unable to make a 55 yard field goal.

To this point, the updated record for teams that are “looking ahead to stardom” is 15-7-1 ATS, which definitely makes it worth factoring before a play on any of these teams.

Week 8 produces two “live” teams in this profile, Pittsburgh and Philly. Both are coming off a loss and playing on the road, which has caused these teams a bit of grief the past few years. It has also provided line value, though, and the two host teams, Cinci and Minnesota, have shown huge deficiencies this season mixed with occasional flashes of greatness.

In a “What have you done for me lately?” world where you are only as good as your latest win…but you can expect the two Pennsylvania teams to be getting plenty of attention from the public.

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Brady’s Six Touchdown Passes Keep Patriots Unbeaten: NFL Week 7

Tom Brady threw a career-high six touchdown passes a week after he had five against Dallas, and the New England Patriots defeated the Miami Dolphins 49-28 yesterday to remain unbeaten. Brady completed 21 of 25 passes for 354 yards, throwing a pair of touchdown passes each to Wes Welker and Randy Moss, and one to both Donte Stallworth and Kyle Brady at Dolphin Stadium in Miami. Brady equaled his output from last week in the first half, and threw his sixth scoring pass in the fourth quarter to raise his league-leading total to 27.

“The receivers did a great job,” Brady said at a news conference. “It makes my job awfully easy, I’ll tell you that.’

The Patriots, now 7-0, have scored at least 34 points in each game this season. New England and the Indianapolis Colts, who visit Jacksonville tonight, are the only National Football League teams without a loss this season.

Welker finished with nine catches for 138 yards and had touchdowns of 14 and 16 yards, while Moss finished with four catches for 122 yards, including scores of 35 and 50 yards to give him a league-best 10. The Dolphins dropped to 0-7.

The New York Giants beat San Francisco 33-15 yesterday for their fifth straight win, Tennessee edged Houston 38-36 as Rob Bironas kicked his NFL-record eighth field goal as time expired, and Denver beat Pittsburgh 31-28 on a game-ending field goal.

In other games during Week 7, it was Detroit 23, Tampa Bay 16; New Orleans 22, Atlanta 16; Washington 21, Arizona 19; Buffalo 19, Baltimore 14; Kansas City 12, Oakland 10; Cincinnati 38, the New York Jets 31; Chicago 19, Philadelphia 16; Dallas 24, Minnesota 14; and Seattle 33, St. Louis 6.

Elsewhere yesterday:

New York Giants 33, San Francisco 15: Eli Manning threw a pair of touchdown passes, and Brandon Jacobs rushed for 107 yards and a score to lead the Giants (5-2) to their fifth win in a row. The Giants’ defense sacked quarterback Trent Dilfer of the 49ers (2-4) six times.

Tennessee 38, Houston 36: Bironas hit a 38-yard field goal, his record eighth of the game, as time expired to lift the Titans (4-2). The Texans (3-4) had scored two touchdowns in the final 1:37 to take a one-point lead.

Denver 31, Pittsburgh 28: Jason Elam kicked a 49-yard field goal on the game’s final play as the Broncos (3-3) ended a three- game losing streak. Ben Roethlisberger threw four touchdown passes for the Steelers (4-2), but was intercepted twice and also lost a fumble.

New Orleans 22, Atlanta 16: Drew Brees threw touchdown passes to Devery Henderson and Reggie Bush for the Saints (2-4). Atlanta is 1-6.

Buffalo 19, Baltimore 14: Marshawn Lynch had a one-yard scoring run and Rian Lindell kicked four field goals for the Bills (2-4). Willis McGahee rushed for 119 yards and a score for the Ravens (4-3).

Washington 21, Arizona 19: Clinton Portis had two rushing touchdowns for the Redskins (4-2). The Cardinals (3-4) failed on a game-tying two-point conversion with 26 seconds left.

Detroit 23, Tampa Bay 16: Kevin Jones and Calvin Johnson had rushing touchdowns for the Lions (4-2). Jeff Garcia threw a pair of touchdown passes for the Buccaneers (4-3).

Cincinnati 38, New York Jets 31: Kenny Watson ran for 130 yards and three touchdowns, two coming in the fourth quarter, as the Bengals (2-4) rallied to beat the Jets (1-6).

Kansas City 12, Oakland 10: Larry Johnson ran for 112 yards and a touchdown for the Chiefs (4-3). Oakland is 2-4.

Dallas 24, Minnesota 14: Tony Romo threw for 277 yards and a touchdown, and Marion Barber ran for 96 yards and a score for the Cowboys (6-1). The Vikings are 2-4.

Chicago 19, Philadelphia 16: Brian Griese found Mushin Muhammad on a 15-yard touchdown pass with 15 seconds left to lead the Bears (3-4) over the Eagles (2-4).

Seattle 33, St. Louis 6: Matt Hasselbeck threw two touchdown passes and Josh Brown kicked four field goals for the Seahawks (4- 3). The Rams are 0-7.

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NFL Week 7 Football Picks

There are some big games in week 7 of the NFL. Here’s the line up:

Sunday, October 21     Time (EST)
Tennessee Titans @ Houstan Texans     1:00 PM
Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys     1:00 PM
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills     1:00 PM
San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants     1:00 PM
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins     1:00 PM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions     1:00 PM
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Redskins     1:00 PM
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints     1:00 PM
Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders     4:05 PM
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals     4:05 PM
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks     4:15 PM
Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles     4:15 PM
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos     8:15 PM

Monday, October 22     Time (EST)
Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars     8:30 PM
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NCAA College Football Week 7

NCAAF Week 7 point spread: LSU, California, Ohio State, Boston College

The AP top teams of LSU, California, Ohio State and Boston College will play their football games on Saturday, we have the early bird point spread and odds on the game.

NCAAF Week 7 point spread: LSU, California, Ohio State, Boston College Four days until Saturday college football and we have the point spread and odds on the top four teams. In this edition of our Week 7 college football preview we will take a look at the following four games: LSU vs. Kentucky, Oregon State vs. California, Kent State vs. Ohio State and Boston College vs. Notre Dame.

We will start with the college game between the No.1 LSU (6-0) visiting No. 17 Kentucky (5-1). LSU took the number one spot on the AP top 25 college football teams after Week 5 and the odds makers are confident they will continue to reign. LSU goes to Kentucky as the favorite to win the game with odds -420, compared to Kentucky listed with odds +350 at Vegas (opens new window). The point spread for the LSU vs. Kentucky game is currently set at -9.5 points chalk LSU. Movement on the spread by a couple of points is expected by the weekend, and if the current numbers look good – you have to hurry up to lock them. Keep in mind that LSU is 2-4 against the spread in its last 6 games when playing Kentucky and the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games. Questionable for Week 7 at LSU is wide receiver Early Doucet and Kentucky may play without RB Alfonso Smith.

Off to the Golden State, where No. 2 California (5-0) will welcome Oregon State (3-3). Vegas has California listed to win the game with odds -600 and Oregon State is the ultimate underdog with odds +475. The point spread on Oregon State vs. California is posted at -13.5 points chalk California and most likely will get all the action for this game. Statistic shows that Oregon State is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing California and the Golden Bears are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home.

On Saturday, No. 3 Ohio State (6-0) will host the game against Kent State (3-3) and boy, did we find some crazy odds for you at Vegas. Ohio State is not only favorite to win the game, but the odds are -5000 (you have to bet 5000 to win 100) and if a higher power intervenes and Kent State wins – they will pay out 2,500 for every 100 bet. The point spread for the Kent State vs. Ohio State game is posted at -30 favoring the Buckeyes and movement upwards is expected. Kent State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road and Ohio State is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games at home.

And we will close this preview with the college football game between the No. 4 Boston College (6-0) visiting struggling Notre Dame (1-5). As expected, Boston College are favorite with odds -550 to win, compared to the underdog Notre Dame with odds at +450. The point spread for the Boston College vs. Notre Dame game favors Boston College -13.5 points. Consider that Boston College is 2-4 against the spread in its last 6 games on the road, but 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Notre Dame.

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NFL Game of the Week: New England vs Dallas – Oct 14

Oct 14: New England Patriots vs Dallas Cowboys in a possible Super Bowl match-up of America’s most loved/hated teams.

The Cowboys rank first in the NFL in scoring, second in offense and fifth in both passing and rushing. But the most impressive offensive statistic to me is the time of possession. With Tony Romo, the Cowboys will always be considered a passing team – yet Dallas leads the NFC in time of possession at 32 minutes, 47 seconds per game. That’s almost 1:45 longer than the Cowboys held onto the ball in games last season. If you have the ball, the other team doesn’t – and you can’t score without the ball. Four AFC teams have held onto the ball longer than the Cowboys, though: New England (34:25), Baltimore (33:54), Pittsburgh (33:49) and Tennessee (33:25).

The last remaining unbeatens in the NFC are the Packers and Cowboys, both at 4-0. Any chance they could both still be unbeaten two months from now? The Packers have three toughies on the road before then at Denver, Kansas City and Detroit. The Cowboys play the Patriots at home before then plus Philadelphia and the New York Giants on the road.

The NFL started incorporating byes into the schedule last weekend, so there were only 14 games on the card for Week 4. Underdogs won eight of them outright. Kansas City became the first double-digit underdog this season to win outright – and also the first double-digit underdog to win on the road. The Chiefs were 11½-point underdogs at San Diego but smoked the Chargers, 30-16. Oakland was the only other underdog to win on the road last weekend, toppling winless Miami.

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College Football: Florida vs. LSU picks

There is a very big college game this Saturday Oct 6: Florida  #9 (defending champs) vs. LSU #1.

When LSU plays host to No. 9 Florida on Saturday, they will be carrying the top ranking in college football. The Gators journey to No. 1 LSU in a game Florida badly needs before its showdown with Eastern Division-leading Georgia (5-0, 3-0) two weeks hence.

It’s been nearly 50 years since a top-ranked LSU team has played a football game. On Nov. 7, 1959, the Tigers took on Tennessee in Knoxville as the top-ranked team but dropped a 14-13 decision to the Volunteers and lost the No. 1 spot.

Undoubtedly, the Tigers’ first challenge as the top-ranked team will be huge. Defending national champion Florida will visit Tiger Stadium after having an 11-game winning streak ended by Auburn 20-17.

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